AIR Worldwide European Wind and Earthquake Cat Models offer a broader and unified view of risk across Europe

15 September 2011 — Daniela GHETU
air_worldwideCatastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide (AIR) released, on september 12th, updates to its Extratropical Cyclone and Earthquake Models for Europe. Both models were significantly expanded to include additional European countries and provide a consistent and comprehensive assessment of the extratropical cyclone and earthquake risk throughout Europe.

"With the expanded regions and enhancements to these models, insurers and reinsurers now have a unified view of risk across Europe", said Dr. Jayanta Guin, senior vice president of research and modeling at AIR Worldwide.

Version 13.0 of the AIR Extratropical Cyclone Model for Europe includes six additional countries. The model now captures the financial impact of European wind storms on 18 countries: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

Version 13.0 of the AIR Earthquake Model for the Pan-European Region includes 24 additional countries. The model now captures the effects of shake damage on properties in 30 countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. Due to the expanded domain, the model will now be called the AIR Earthquake Model for the Pan-European Region.

Beside their enhanced geographic relevance, both models were also technically improved considering last hour data with regard to the vulnerability of structures in each modeled country, local construction practices and materials, and the evolution and enforcement of building codes. In designing the, the statistiscal data bases were expanded, considering a wider range of phenomenons, improved techniques for modeling wind speed at a fine scale and a more realistic treatment of smaller, high frequency storms using data obtained from more than 1,500 historical events dating from 1958. The earthquake model is also using data from more than 60 historic earthquakes across Europe. As a result, the hazard module features a region-wide and fully harmonized seismicity model for improved estimation of risk to policies and portfolios that span more than one country—a capability not provided by single-country models.

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