AIR launches severe thunderstorm model

Catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide released a new severe thunderstorm model for Europe. The AIR Severe Thunderstorm Model for Europe captures the effects of straight-line winds and hail, enabling companies to assess their risk from the local scale to the macro level on insured properties, including residential, commercial, automobiles, and specialty lines of business—in 22 countries, including thr CEE countries.Together with AIR's Extratropical Cyclone Model for Europe and European flood models, this new model now allows for a comprehensive assessment of atmospheric risk in this region.

"Though typically associated with the summer months, severe thunderstorms can strike Europe at any time of the year, and their loss potential is increasing," said Dr. Eric Robinson, manager and principal scientist, AIR Worldwide. "A severe thunderstorm event can, over the course of several days, produce multiple outbreaks. Depending upon the region, high-frequency severe thunderstorms can contribute up to 50 percent to overall wind-related insured losses in Europe."

The scientifically advanced severe thunderstorm model realistically simulates the highly localized effects of individual hail and straight-line winds (microevents)—from a meteorological perspective the key drivers of loss from severe thunderstorms—and the spatial extent of macroevents (combinations of microevents). This is achieved by replicating daily activity based on a comprehensive analysis of historical storm outbreaks. The model reflects emerging scientific and engineering research and leverages data from many sources, including storm report databases, numerical weather prediction, and an unprecedented amount of radar data from recent events. To validate the model, AIR used a large set of claims data, including detailed claims from some of the largest insurers in Europe.

In Romania, following the severe storms that hit the Western part of Romania in September 2017, there were some voices from the Government who stated that the storm risk should also be included in the mandatory household insurance policy, but the proposal was dismissed for the moment

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