Totalrevenues increased across all geographies: AXA XL (+8%) reflecting strong price effects in most lines and selective underwriting mainly in Casualty and Reinsurance Property Cat, France (+6%) driven by strong sales of Unit-Linked products, Asia and International (+5%) driven by higher sales in Health and Protection, and Europe (+1%) as growth across most countries was partly offset by lower revenues in Italy notably following the earlier lockdown.
- Gross revenues: EUR 31,669 million (+4%), of which:
- France: EUR 7,365 million (+6%)
- Europe*: EUR 12,083 million (+1%)
- AXA XL: EUR 6,591 million (+8%)
- Asia: EUR 2,784 million (+4%)
- International**: EUR 2,074 million (+6%)
- Transversal: EUR 772 million (+4%)
* Europe: Switzerland, Germany, Belgium, UK & Ireland, Spain, Italy
** International: AXA Bank Belgium, AXA Mediterranean Holdings, Turkey, Greece, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia L&S, Luxembourg, Russia (Reso), the Gulf Region, Morocco Nigeria and Lebanon, India, Singapore, Malaysia P&C, Mexico, Colombia, Brazil.As main transactions, AXA mentioned the sell of AXA's operations in Central and Eastern (February 7, 2020) and the redemption of EUR 1.3 billion subordinated debt (April 16, 2020).
Revenues: AXA expects the lockdowns in affected countries to impact its sales and revenues progressively, most notably through a reduction of new business activity across most lines of business, with some offset anticipated from improved retention. Total revenues for the month of March declined by ca. -5% over the same period last year. Initial trends for the month of April indicate a ca. -12% overall reduction in gross revenues across most geographies, as compared to April 2019. The impacts are expected to be more significant in L&S, and to a lesser degree in P&C and in Health.
Claims: Claims notified related to Covid-19 in March have been limited at this early stage. However, confinement measures across all geographies are expected to have a material impact on the level of claims across a number of product lines, most notably in Event Cancellation and Business Interruption. For Event Cancellation, a preliminary estimate for the total potential claims related to Covid-19 is in the mid triple digit million euros, pre-tax and net of reinsurance. For Business Interruption, with limited claims notified to date, it is too early to make an estimate of the level of potential claims.
Earnings: While it is too early to provide any precise guidance on the impacts on revenues, AXA's management believes that the effects of the Covid-19 crisis will have a material impact on the Group's earnings in 2020. In 1Q2020, the estimated net realized capital gains (including impairments and benefits from equity hedges) amounted to EUR +0.2 billion, the estimated marked-to-market impact from financial instruments carried at fair value through Net Income amounted to EUR +0.3 billion.
Assets: AXA has an asset portfolio primarily consisting of government bonds (average rating AA) and corporate bonds (average rating A), with limited exposure to the most vulnerable sectors in the current context (Travel, Transportation, Leisure, Oil & Gas). The corporate bond portfolio is actively managed based on internal ratings. Equity and interest rate exposures are actively managed through hedging strategies and duration gap management.
"The Group performed well in the first quarter of 2020. (...) Although Covid-19 related claims notified in March were limited and the precise implications of the crisis remain uncertain at this stage, we believe that the effects of the Covid-19 crisis will have a material impact on our earnings in 2020. (...) We are confident in our strategy and its execution, and the need for enhanced insurance coverage in our preferred segments confirms our growth potential post-crisis."
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