"This year and next, we expect global premium to grow by more than EUR 460 billion in all. This is equivalent to average annual premium growth of 5.3% (in real terms, i.e. adjusted for inflation: 3.7%), whereas global GDP is expected to grow by only 4.9% (3.3% in real terms)", according to "Insurance Market Outlook for 2018/2019", recently released by MUNICH Re.
Life insurance, in particular, looks set to return to strong annual premium growth of 5.6% (3.9% in real terms) after a weak 2017, while property-casualty insurance is benefiting from the currently favorable economic environment, and in this respect, MUNICH Re expects an annual growth rate of 4.9% (3.3% in real terms). "Emerging countries are the primary growth drivers, but somewhat stronger growth rates in high-volume industrialized countries are also contributing to this positive development".
The long-term outlook for the insurance industry forecasts for 2030 a volume of EUR 7.9 trillion - almost double the volume of EUR 4.2 trillion in 2017. "Of the additional premium of EUR 3.7 trillion by 2030, some EUR 1.2 trillion is expected to come from China alone. Almost two-thirds of this is likely to derive from life and health insurance business, with the rest coming from property-casualty insurance".
According to MUNICH Re representatives, InsurTechs will play a rather subordinate part in market growth. "While we think that innovative start-ups may lead to something of a surge in premium growth in emerging markets and developing countries, we are not really expecting additional premium income in the industrialized countries. There, InsurTechs will change the market considerably through their role as digital brokers, as well as through product innovations and the use of new technologies along the value chain, but this is not expected to result in any significant change in premium growth".