Moody’s RMS^®, the leading risk modeling and solutions company, estimates that insured losses from Windstorm Ciarán, also known as Emir, will likely fall between EUR 0.9 – 1.5 billion (USD 1.0 – 1.6 billion). France accounts for the majority of the loss.

Storm Ciarán was a European windstorm that severely affected parts of Europe from late October to early November 2023. Part of the 2023–24 European windstorm season, Ciarán impacted northwestern Europe, including Belgium, the United Kingdom, the Channel Islands, the Netherlands, and Germany and killed 20 people, eleven of whom were in Italy. It also caused mass disruption to transport. Widespread damage from 160 miles per hour (260 km/h) winds were reported in the Channel Islands, while 1.2 million French households were left without electricity.

“Windstorm Ciaràn can be thought of, as a weaker sibling of 87J, the Great Storm of 1987, which severely affected the United Kingdom and Northwest France in October 1987. Even with lower gust speeds and a more limited extent compared to 87J, losses will still be significant for France. Despite the recent period of windstorm activity, the destruction now brought by Ciaràn reminds us of the importance of extra tropical cyclones for the (re)insurance industry,” Giovanni LEONCINI, Senior Product Manager for Europe Windstorm Models at Moody’s RMS, said. 

This loss estimate is based on wind hazard reconstructions using the recently released Moody’s RMS^® Europe Windstorm HD Models, and includes damage to property, automobiles, agriculture, and direct business interruption, but excludes losses arising from infrastructure damage, which are not expected to be material.  

The loss estimates also consider minor impacts from non-modeled sources of loss such as coastal and inland flooding, and damage to forestry, ports, and watercraft. Post-event loss amplification due to material and labor shortages – which can drive up replacement costs, is expected to be minor, even if inflationary trends are prevalent in the countries worst affected by this event.  Damages from Storm Domingos, named by Spain’s state meteorological agency AEMET that impacted Central-West France in the days following Ciarán, are not included in this estimate.