RUSSIA: affected by the decreasing economic activity - the insurance market may drop to the level it had five years ago

21 April 2020 — Marina MAGNAVAL
According to the forecast of the Expert RA rating agency, the spread of coronavirus will significantly affect the dynamics of the insurance market in 2020 and lead to its decline in the range 17% to 27%, the agency's review says.

If at the beginning of the second half of the economic year activity starts to recover, then the insurance market may drop by about 17%. At that, voluntary segments are subject to a stronger negative impact, while compulsory insurance, according to the agency, will suffer much less. The agency's positive scenario provides for the market volume by the end of 2020 at RUB 1.23 trillion (~EUR 15.35 billion), out of which about RUB 900 billion will fall on the non-life sector (-16% y-o-y).

Expert RA forecasts the largest decrease under the positive scenario for insurance against accidents and diseases (-25%), voluntary health insurance (-20%), insurance of other property of individuals (-20%), Motor Hull (-15%), as well as life insurance (-20%).

The negative scenario, if the economy starts to recover only in 4Q2020, provides for a drop of the insurance market by 27%, to the level it had five years ago. The non-life sector will amount to RUB 836 billion (~EUR 10.44 billion), according to the agency (decrease by more than 20% y-o-y), life insurance will go down by 40%, insurance against accidents and diseases - down by 35%, voluntary health insurance and insurance of property of individuals - both by 30%, Motor Hull - by 25%, as mentioned in the review.

However, "the level of uncertainty associated with the pandemic is extremely high, which prevents more accurate forecasting", the agency noted.

Expert RA is the Russia's largest credit rating agency with a 22-years history and a market leader in credit rating services.

* EUR 1 = RUB 80.1110 (as of 18.04.2020)

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