The study analysed four earthquake scenarios ranging from magnitude 7.1 to 7.4 in the Marmara Sea region, examining potential damage to industrial facilities, commercial businesses and residential properties across 10 provinces. Insurance companies currently provide total coverage of TRY 11.5 trillion (USD 274 billion) in the 10 provinces. These provinces have high industrial density and residential concentration and are close to potential epicentres.
According to the report of the newspaper Hurriyet, the modelling exercise indicates that, in the event of an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.1 to 7.4, the amount of insured damage would range between TRY 380 billion and TRY 500 billion. These figures are based on end-of-2024 values. Calculated using the exchange rate at that time, the insured damage would be slightly over USD 14 billion. Based on today’s exchange rate, the insured damage from a potential Marmara earthquake could reach USD 21 billion.
It is noted that Marmara has both dense industry and high insurance rates in industry and residences. The region hosts Turkiye's largest industrial base and most populous city, Istanbul.
The modelling was conducted by T-Rupt Technology, Turkiye's only modelling company owned by Turk Reasurans, which is wholly owned by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance. The stress test was commissioned by the SEDDK to determine the scale of potential damage and identify which regions would be most affected, allowing insurers to prepare adequate reserves and reinsurance arrangements, the source added.
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