The world is experiencing one of the most volatile geopolitical periods in our history since the end of World War Two. Even before the current conflict in the Middle East, the risks posed by political violence and civil unrest had been intensifying, evolving into global challenges that impact companies, communities, and the wider economy.
According to the new Political violence and civil unrest trends 2026 report from Allianz Commercial, war has overtaken civil unrest as the political violence exposure companies fear most (53% of all respondents globally), as conflicts in Europe and the Middle East disrupt global trade flows, strain political alliances, embolden adversarial powers and heighten risks to business assets. Around 60% of respondents from Europe and Asia-Pacific see war as the top risk. Civil unrest ranks at #2 globally (49%), terrorism/sabotage is at #3 (46%).
The latest edition of this annual report provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolving political violence and terrorism threat landscape, offering insights from Allianz Commercial in-house experts into the trends shaping our world today. As businesses navigate this era of heightened uncertainty, understanding the implications of these risks and mitigating them with interconnected ecosystems has never been more critical.
The US / Iran conflict is currently dominating news cycles, having disrupted the global economy significantly. Businesses impacted by armed conflict face significant challenges, including supply chain disruptions, loss of market access, as well as the risk of cyber-attacks and sabotage, the report notes. Even before the Iran war, it is estimated that business assets had experienced a 20%+ increase in exposure to conflict in the last five years. For the insurance industry, and especially the Political Violence & Terrorism (PVT) business, the war in the Middle East may lead to significant losses in some areas and new risk assessments for selected key industries and regions. Based on current estimates, the financial loss quantum has the potential to result in a costlier event than PVT claims resulting from the war in Ukraine.
“Wars, the threat of future conflicts and other political violence activities are likely to undermine geopolitical and economic stability in 2026 and for years to come. For many companies, there is a visibility gap when it comes to vulnerabilities in their physical and digital supply chains due to such geopolitical risks. Being able to identify these complex exposures is crucial. Risk managers must be relentlessly forward-looking with their resilience strategies, constantly refining them to keep pace with emerging threats as they arise from multiple sources, now and in the future”, commented Thomas Lillelund, CEO of Allianz Commercial.
The full report can be found here.
