The 27th edition of FIAR – the International Insurance – Reinsurance Forum took place in Sinaia featuring the “Insurance Market Trends” conference, where industry leaders and financial experts discussed the growing impact of geopolitical tensions, inflation and economic uncertainty on the Romanian economy and insurance market.

Opening the discussions, Sorin MITITELU, Vicepresident, ASF, Romania, highlighted Romania’s still limited insurance penetration and the structural imbalances of the local market. According to him, Romania remains heavily dependent on motor insurance, while life insurance has a much smaller share compared with other countries of similar size and economic profile.

“Underinsurance leads to a huge loss in premium volume and leaves both Romanian citizens and the state budget highly exposed to natural catastrophe risks,” Mititelu warned. He stressed that market development depends on two major directions: expanding insurance solutions for companies and accelerating innovation and the adoption of new technologies. Artificial intelligence could play a key role in the sector’s development, he added, but only if accompanied by regulatory convergence and coordinated market efforts.

Despite the difficult economic backdrop, Mititelu believes the insurance sector remains relatively resilient. Inflation continues to affect profitability, but its impact can still be managed.

A broader geopolitical perspective was offered by Bogdan NICHISOIU, Regional CEE Enhanced Information Manager, COFACE Romania , who pointed out that one-third of participants at the recent Davos forum identified geopolitical instability as the world’s main global risk — particularly challenging because it cannot be accurately modelled.

Nichisoiu noted that Europe has fallen behind economically due to excessive regulation, bureaucracy, energy dependencies and increasing protectionism from both the United States and China. “Central and Eastern Europe is now experiencing slower growth, while the impact differs significantly across economic sectors depending on their exposure to the energy crisis,” he explained. Looking ahead, he said that maintaining healthy cash flow management will become essential in 2026.

A more cautious assessment of Romania’s economic outlook came from Radu CRACIUN, Associate Professor, The Institute for Business Administration in Bucharest – ASEBUSS, Romania. He described the country as being close to a stagflation scenario, with inflation still around 10% and economic growth slipping into negative territory.

Craciun expects inflation to ease towards 5% by September, but warned that economic growth remains fragile, especially as Romania attempts its first major economic correction without IMF support. He also raised concerns about the country losing its “investment grade” attractiveness in the eyes of investors.

On the currency market, Craciun believes the depreciation of the Romanian leu will remain under control. “The euro will not reach RON 6, as some pessimistic forecasts suggest. The National Bank will intervene to stabilize the market, although these measures may also generate recessionary side effects,” he said.

Representing the insurance industry, Alexandru CIUNCAN, President & General Director, UNSAR, Romania emphasized both the strengths and vulnerabilities of the Romanian insurance market. Romania ranks among the Top 5 insurance markets in Central and Eastern Europe by premium volume, but the market structure remains unbalanced.

According to Ciuncan, Romanian insurers currently pay claims worth approximately EUR 7.5 million every day, while their investments in the national economy have reached EUR 7.6 billion. At the same time, the market’s aggregated combined ratio increased by five percentage points to 92%, driven by high claims frequency.

He also pointed to a positive trend: a 7% increase in the number of voluntary home insurance policies. However, Romania’s protection gap remains extremely high, estimated at EUR 167 billion.

The discussions at FIAR 2026 reflected growing concerns that geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures and economic slowdown are reshaping both the business environment and the insurance sector. Yet speakers also underlined that innovation, technology and stronger risk awareness could become the foundations for a more resilient market in the years ahead.