Lithuania: market regulator expects a moderate GWP growth in 2021

18 February 2021 — Daniela GHETU
The Bank of Lithuania expects a moderate growth of the insurance market this year, by 3% to 5%, up to a total EUR 997 million in GWP. While the non-life business is expected to recover from the 2020 fall, life insurance will grow at a slower pace than last year.

"The insurance sector has stood up to the challenges posed by the pandemic, although, as we projected, motor vehicle insurance suffered the hardest blow by the quarantine last year. Its premiums declined the most out of all insurance classes. Nonetheless, having assessed economic and other forecasts, we approach this year with cautious optimism. Surely, we will be constantly keeping our finger on the pulse and will be closely monitoring the developments in this market,' said Jekaterina GOVINA, Director of the Financial Market Supervision Service of the Bank of Lithuania.

The entire insurance market is projected to increase by 3 to 5% this year in terms of premiums written, to EUR 997 million. Last year premiums totaled EUR 955 million, up by 1% y-o-y.

The non-life insurance segment was the most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, GWP decreasing by 1.7% y-o-y, to EUR 664 million. In 2021, the central bank expects a 4 to 6% growth in GWP, to nearly EUR 700 million.

Compulsory MTPL insurance accounts for well over one third of the non-life business. Last year premiums dropped by 8.4%, to EUR 242 million. The market watchdog forecasts its volume to increase by 3.4%, to EUR 250 million. In 2020, the portfolio of property insurance grew by 8.3%, to EUR 130 million, and is projected to increase by 8.3% as well in 2021, to EUR 140 million.

In GWP terms, the life assurance market is projected to increase by 1 to 3% in 2021, up to EUR 298 million, thus showing a slower growth pace than in 2020, when it grew by 7.5%, to EUR 291 million. Unit-linked life assurance comprises the largest share of the market (65%), with its premiums portfolio rising by as much as 11.3% last year, to EUR 189 million. Current estimations suggest it will continue to expand this year by about 4.5%, to nearly EUR 200 million. In 2020, health insurance grew by 9.3%, to EUR 37 million. In 2021, its volume is expected to increase by more than 2%, to EUR 38 million.

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