Middle East tensions drive surge in marine war risk premiums

5 March 2026 — Daniela GHETU
Middle East tensions drive surge in marine war risk premiums

Growing tensions in the Persian Gulf are already affecting maritime operations and the marine insurance market, as several merchant vessels have reportedly been damaged and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slows down.

According to a recent market update released by Aon on March 2nd, at least two tankers have sustained damage during the initial phase of the escalation. The product tanker MT SKYLIGHT, sailing under the Palau flag, was reportedly struck near Khasab, Oman, in the Strait of Hormuz approaches, injuring four crew members. Another vessel, the Marshall Islands-flagged crude oil tanker MT MKD VYOM, was also hit by a projectile while operating in the Gulf of Oman. In a separate incident, a bunker tanker operating off the UAE coast was reportedly damaged by debris resulting from missile interception activity.

The incidents come amid significant operational disruption in one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors. AIS tracking data show that more than 150 oil and LNG carriers have anchored or paused operations while awaiting security updates, and several major shipping companies have temporarily suspended transits through the Strait of Hormuz. The region currently hosts over 900 insured vessels with an aggregate hull value exceeding USD 22.5 billion, highlighting the scale of potential exposure for the marine insurance market.

Underwriters are particularly concerned about the growing aggregation of vessels in regional anchorages, including Musandam/Khasab waiting areas, Fujairah offshore anchorage and northern Gulf loading terminals. Concentrations of tankers and gas carriers increase the risk that a single kinetic or interception event could generate multi-vessel losses.

Reflecting the rising risk environment, marine war risk insurers have already begun repricing Gulf exposures. Market sources indicate that war risk premiums for voyages in the region have increased from typical levels of around 0.2–0.3% of vessel value to approximately 0.5%, while the additional war risk premium for a single transit of the Strait of Hormuz could reach up to 1% depending on the vessel and risk profile.

Hormuz tensions disrupt shipping and drive marine war risk concerns

Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf are severely disrupting maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Security threats, including missile and drone activity, have led many shipping companies to suspend transits, leaving more than a hundred oil and LNG carriers anchored in the Gulf while awaiting safety assurances.

According to “Aon Middle East Conflict Update”, there are over 900 insured vessels currently operating in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz area with an aggregate hull value exceeding USD 22.5 billion, as well as over 150 oil/LNG carriers anchored or paused operations. Moreover, the U.S. EIA estimates flow through Hormuz at roughly ~20 million b/d - about ~20% of global petroleum liquids consumption (recent baseline).

The disruption has immediate implications for the marine insurance market. War risk underwriters have begun reassessing exposure in the region, with additional war risk premiums rising sharply and some insurers reviewing coverage terms for voyages through the Gulf. Insurers are also closely monitoring the aggregation risk created by large numbers of vessels waiting in regional anchorages.

Given that the Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil trade, a prolonged disruption could further increase insurance costs, impact energy markets and intensify underwriting scrutiny for shipping risks in the region.

Read the full Aon report here 
 

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