XPRIMM News No. 118, October 9th, 2008

	XPRIMM News - THE ROMANIAN INSURANCE MARKET NEWSLETTER No. 118, October 9th, 2008 Click here to subscribe! Click here to unsubscribe!
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MENU: EDITORIAL \| INTERVIEW \| TOP PRESS \| CEE, RUSSIA&CIS \| FINANCIAL NEWS \| EVENTS

EDITORIAL

When some shout "crisis", others whisper "opportunity"

"I will tell you how to become rich: Be fearful when others are greedy...And be greedy when others are fearful". This is the recipe for success in Warren BUFFETT's philosophy, one of the richest men in the world, with an estimated fortune of 52 billion dollars.

The 77 year old American has demonstrated a perfect synchronization, over the last decades, with the business trends, especially on the global stock markets - an excellent reason for the larger and smaller investors to follow his every move, moves that say: it is time to be greedy.

So, BUFFETT took advantage of the crisis and panic from the financial markets and invested, last week, USD 5 billion in preferential stocks of GOLDMAN Sachs, after their value drastically decreased over investor's fear that the bank might have the same fate of BEAR Stearns, or even worse, the late LEHMAN Brothers.

The preferential shares hold a 10% dividend return and they will provide BUFFETT with yearly revenues of USD 500 million, while the investment transferred 9% of GOLDMAN Sachs under the control of BERKSHIRE Hathaway, the investment vehicle which helped him acquire his impressive fortune.

Less than a week from the acquisition, Warren BUFFETT decided to invest another USD 3 billion in GENERAL Electric, one of the stars of the American economy, also shaken by the crisis. The investment had similar terms: preferential shares, with fixed dividends, a slight time variation and the same 10% dividend return.

Although it was said about the two investments that they were more "a vote of confidence" for the two companies as well as for the financial market, it is clear that the real purpose is to make more money.

When some shout "crisis", BUFFETT whispered "opportunity" and he bought at a low price. We will probably find out in a short while if he will succeed in selling at a higher price. Anyway, it seems that the American investor is not the only one to profit from the current situation.

"Such an opportunity, to buy shares of important companies at a low price, comes once in 15 to 20 years, now being the best time to invest", Klaus JUNKER, CEO of ALLIANZ New Europe has said.

Which is the conclusion to be drawn? It is the right time to invest.

One of the investment opportunities for common people, who are searching for the optimum methods to place their savings, can be, for the moment, the unit-linked insurance policies.

Although the policies registered significant losses in terms of return, over the last year, they are even more attractive in this present context.

Thus, in spite of the current state of panic from the financial markets in America and Western Europe, we should learn from Warren BUFFET's mentality and search for available means to save money or invest (and, of course, to protect ourselves).

And one of the means is the unit-linked insurance.

by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro

INTERVIEW

Interview with Crinu ANDANUT, PhD
Chairman,
The Romanian Association of Private Pension Administrators

XPRIMM: We celebrate one year since the launch of mandatory private pensions in Romania. What do you think of the results so far?
Crinu ANDANUT, PhD: To us, the operators, this year has been the YEAR OF TRUTH as we got down to business and we had to convince Romanians of the urgent need to change their mentality, namely to make everyone responsible for their own future, in line with the European culture of personal attitude. On a more technical level, this year meant a huge effort, where we had to provide the logistics and distribution capacities for this new pension saving product in a very short time of merely four months. In this respect, the key to our success was organising skills and team work.
The competition on the market was tough. A competitive market is not a graceful ballet stage. It all comes down to competition between professionals that have targets, ambitions, business plans, but it is important that we managed to communicate, maybe even better than the operators from other markets, that we engaged in a professional dialogue, replacing conflicts with sharing views and ideas. In general, even if not all actions were fair-play, few however went beyond normal boundaries. Maybe this is also due to the fact that the Romanian economy is maturing, European realities got closer to us, and the Romanian "jungle" of endless freedom has become more civilised. Moreover, I have to particularly point out that the institution having regulated and started the whole system, The Private Pension System Supervisory Commission (PPSSC) took great actions and did an amazing job in this first stage.
Finally, as a funny comment, we are surprised to see a variation between the target figures announced at the beginning of the race and the real results achieved by many of the operators. It has been an extraordinary game, a game of image most of all, a professional game. Some used figures to manipulate the market by announcing highly ambitious plans, others were more reserved and stayed between reasonable limits. I watched this show closely and I think I knew what stand I had to take. Therefore, I can say that ALLIANZ-TIRIAC achieved and even topped its initial targets without letting the public down and confirming once more the seriousness and balance that ALLIANZ is all about. Of course, we have higher ambitions, too.

XPRIMM: What could you say about the development of the optional pension market and what are your forecasts for the near future?
C.A., PhD: I think all channels overreacted with their forecasts. I even asked myself often on what grounds they were made. Romania is "a country lacking statistics", so, even in the case of mandatory pensions, the total size of the targeted market was a "mystery" before the end of the campaign. Only now can we see how much of this market is real and how much of it exists only on paper. Real figures were used less than "image-gaining" figures and, consequently, the entire forecasting trend was exaggerated. This goes for optional pensions as well and that is why the people are under the impression that Pillar 3 didn't bring in the expected results over this period.
In my opinion, we should be more cautious with forecasting and intervene by means of market-stimulating technical measures: deductibility, transfer adjustment, and other measures supporting the market and that are already being considered by PPSSC. I think that the pension market will grow slowly. I am repeating what I've always been saying: 2008 is not the year of pensions because mentalities don't change that fast in the Romanian economy. A lot of hard work is needed in terms of education, some issues need to be discussed and re-discussed to exhaustion before the economy and its players can really see private pensions as a useful tool. Individuals still show a very strong consumer tendency and no saving culture at all, plus people's incomes are not high enough yet.
As a conclusion, this market will develop only with a lot patience and hard work. It is enough to have a look at the life insurance market showing clearly that, after ten years of running, Romania is still one of the most under-insured countries.

XPRIMM: The "moment of truth" is getting closer as in 2009 the first official results regarding the returns of pension funds will be made public. In this respect, what could you tell us about the main goals of private pension administrators for the next period?
C.A., PhD: Many things still need to be done. We need to finish up a system that was launched too quickly and that still contains many things that need changing, adjusting to reality, regulating. In this area, any decision you make today will have irreversible effects in ten years and that is why a lot of carefulness is required. For example, the average contributions could be improved on both pillars. It is obvious that we have the smallest contributions to mandatory pension schemes of all Central and Eastern European countries. This means troubles for future retirees who will have a smaller accrual of retirement benefits than those from other countries. In 15 - 20 years, new comparisons will be made that will not be in favour of Romania.
In addition, it is a well-proven fact that deductibility provided for the optional pension system is the decisive factor as to the size of contributions. With an average contribution of 200 euros/year, we can't expect great yields leading to a decent pension and I am afraid that overrated expectations are being generated about the optional pension system yields. Fortunately, there is some hope that things will change for the better.
As far as the returns are concerned, of course we could work them out, but it would be unpractical and it wouldn't give us a taste of the pension system. Only in about five years, will we see significant results. Unfortunately, the market turns us into opportunists and makes us run away from long-term investment. On the other hand, given the current circumstances, where the equity market has taken a downfall, we should be more flexible in dealing out different types of financial instruments, even if our prospects set some limits regarding the make-up of the investment portfolio. The investment make-up was thought for the long run and in such a time, like the current crisis, we need to be very careful or otherwise we could end up consciously losing money.

XPRIMM: What do you think about the relationship with the supervisory authority so far? Could the restructuring of RAPPA contribute to a better dialogue between PPSSC and operators?
C.A., PhD: The Association is increasingly more active and present on the pension market. I was appointed Chairman at the end of Bram BOON's term and I am happy to get all this trust from my colleagues. It is a difficult task at hand because I, as an operator, need to represent the interests of all operators, big or small. It is a matter of principle.
Our goal is to build up our image and become a real dialogue partner on the market. To this purpose, we have taken big steps forward in our relationship with the PPSSC. PPSSC consults us about every legal and regulation matter. This is great because both, we and the Commission, are rookies as no one can say that Romania has a history in this field, and the experience of our parent companies can be very important and useful.
RAPPA plans a different approach to the dialogue between market players. We have to represent the interests of all and that is why the Association is the perfect environment for sharing ideas as well as arguments so that this market can grow fast, give future a chance, and prevent through dialogue any problems that might arise and could affect the interests of pension scheme contributors.
I am glad to say that our dialogue with the Commission has hugely improved. Both I and my colleagues are very pleased. Of course, we can't talk about a "friendship" or a general consensus, because, in the end, we take completely different stands, but it is important that we communicate well. The Commission needs to strengthen law application, and we, the operators, are here to win the clients' trust... in other words, in the end, our interests come together to the benefit of market growth and stability. Consequently, I can honestly say that there are no problems as to building the pension system on very solid ground.

XPRIMM: Thank you!

by daniela.ghetu@mxp.ro

Crinu ANDANUT, PhD
Chairman,
The Romanian Association of Private Pension Administrators

TOP PRESS

The law regarding compulsory households insurance passed the Chamber of Deputies
The law regarding compulsory households insurance was adopted on the 8th of October by the Chamber of Deputies.
Regarding the law, Angela TONCESCU, the President of the Insurance Supervision Commission explained for XPRIMM publications that: "the introduction of the compulsory households insurance, which has a strong social impact, will bring along a growth for the property insurance segment".
Click here to read more!
by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro, 9.10.2008

Who won? Who lost?...in 2007
The value of the cumulated profit of the market decreased by 12.89% in 2007, compared to 2006, while the value of the losses increased by 60.01%, according to the Insurance Supervisory Commission's 2007 Annual Report.
In these circumstances, only 18 companies made profit in 2007, totalizing RON 162.86 million (EUR 48.8 million).
Click here to read more!
by mihaela.circu@mxp.ro, 1.10.2008

Mediation market in Romania reaches RON 1 billion
According to INSURANCE Profile estimation, the insurance mediation market recorded a total income of EUR 272.41 million (RON 1 billion) during the first half of the current year. With more than 84% of mediated premium from motor insurance (Motor Hull and MTPL, added up), the national mediation branch has increased between January-June 2008 compared with the similar period of the last year with almost 40%.
Click here to read more!
by vlad.boldijar@mxp.ro, 2.10.2008

Fiscal incentives for voluntary pensions, increased from EUR 200 to 400 / year starting 2009
ROMANIA. Fiscal incentives for voluntary pensions (3rd pillar pension) contributions in Romania will be increased from 200 EUR to 400 EUR per year, for each employee and employer, starting 1st of January 2009, Romania's Government announced yesterday.
Click here to read more!
by mihai.bobocea@mxp.ro, 9.10.2008

Romania is just at the beginning of the cycle of insurance distribution diversification
CEE and CIS insurance markets are entering a new stage in the market evolution with a sharp increase of new distribution channels. For the life segment, bancassurance and IFAs will have the largest evolution while property&casualty insurance distribution will head towards brokers, affinity business, direct and bancassurance channels.
Regarding diversification of distribution channels in insurance, Romania is placed, along with Russia, in an emerging stage, over 80% of premiums written through tied-agents, according to a study presented by the Oliver WYMAN company, member of MARSH & McLENNAN Group, at a bancassurance conference held in Prague last week.
Click here to read more!
by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro, 2.10.2008

ALLIANZ is aiming for an organic growth in CEE
ALLIANZ sets it's goal to consolidate their position in Central and Eastern Europe through an organic growth. "The company does not have to follow an external growth, but, if an important acquisition opportunity will arise, the group will analyze and decide the outcome", Klaus JUNKER, CEO, ALLIANZ New Europe has declared for XPRIMM Newsletters.
This statement was given in the context in which AIG, the worlds largest insurance group until a some time ago, will make public a list of subsidiaries which will be sold. The New York Insurance Department already hired a consultancy company to assist the sale of some of AIG operations.
Click here to read more!
by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro, 2.10.2008

Guarantee Fund for Private Pensions in Parliament until March 2009
ROMANIA. The law on the establishment and functioning of the Guarantee Fund for private pensions could become a reality in the spring of 2009, according to recent legislation adopted by the Romanian Parliament. According to the new provisions, "within 120 days after the publishing of this document in the Official Gazette, the special law regarding the Guarantee Fund in the private pensions system must be submited to the Parliament".
Click here to read more!
by daniela.ghetu@mxp.ro, 9.10.2008

GROUPAMA could own four Romanian companies
The French insurance group GROUPAMA was selected by the Agricultural Bank of Greece, known as ATEBank, for negotiations regarding taking over a 50.08% share in the banks' insurance subsidiary, ATE Insurance, also present on the Romanian market.
Click here to read more!
by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro, 9.10.2008

ALLIANZ-TIRIAC relies on EUR 440 million business and on EUR 10 million profit for 2008
The insurance company ALLIANZ-TIRIAC aims to underwrite, by the end of 2008, a volume of premiums of EUR 440 million. Thus, according to the insurer's estimates, the non-life segment will contribute with more than EUR 400 million to the total underwritings of ALLIANZ-TIRIAC, while the life insurance will represent EUR 37 million.
Click here to read more!
by mihaela.circu@mxp.ro, 26.09.2008

ASTRA-UNIQA wants EUR 1 million profit in 2008 and estimates a 20% growth for MTPL prices in 2009
Insurer ASTRA-UNIQA, member of UNIQA Group and the ninth insurer in Romania in 2007 estimates 52% business growth for 2008 up to EUR 170 million, as compared with the previous year. "Also, the paid claims for 2008 will probably rise to EUR 100 million, considering the growing trend of the claims ratio, which increased by 70.6% after the first eight months of the year", Radu MUSTATEA, President of the Executive Board at ASTRA UNIQA, has declared.
Click here to read more!
by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro, 9.10.2008

EUR 250 deductibility for voluntary health insurance
The draft amendment to the Fiscal Code proposed by the Ministry of Economy and Finances (MEF), which provides a deductibility increase from EUR 200 to EUR 250, applied to insurance premiums paid for voluntary health, insurance was approved yesterday by the Government.
If it will be adopted, the Emergency Ordinance which will change the Tax Code will begin to take effect from 1 January 2009.
Click here to read more!
by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro, 9.10.2008

SIGNAL IDUNA - Greenfield on the health insurance market
After the official launch of the company, which will take place at the end of October this year, SIGNA IDUNA will begin its activity on the Romanian market by opening five agencies in Bucharest and in the country, and after that it will gradually expand in other large cities.
Click here to read more!
by mihai.cracea@mxp.ro, 1.10.2008

Capitalization of the Romanian insurance market in 2007 - EUR 600 million
The Romanian insurance market capitalization in 2007 came close to EUR 600 million. The total value of the share capital has reached EUR 592.4 million (RON 1.98 billion), according to the ISC 2007 Anual Report. It surpassed the value from 2006 by 31.92% (EUR 415.85 million).
Click here to read more!
by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro, 6.10.2008

MILLENNIUM Insurance Broker focuses on life insurance
Although it has recorded a significant increase in the volume of intermediate premiums in the general insurance line, the company MILLENNIUM Insurance Broker is heading its attention to the life insurance segment.
Click here to read more!
by mihai.cracea@mxp.ro, 3.10.2008

Romania's mandatory pension funds only have 4,500 foreign participants
ROMANIA. Foreigners that came to work in Romania make up for only 0.1% of the total number of mandatory pension funds' participants (2nd pillar private pensions), that is 4,500 workers, an exclusive analysis by www.privatepensions.ro has shown. The total number of pension fund participants in mandatory schemes in Romania is close to 4.4 million clients.
Click here to read more!
by mihai.bobocea@mxp.ro, 9.10.2008

BRUSSELS Broker is aiming for EUR half million in 2009
BRUSSELS Insurance Broker, the new company which started its activity in June 2008, is aiming for more than half million EUR in 2009 in intermediated premiums, according to the company officials.
"For 2008 we estimate EUR 200 000 in premiums until the beginning of the next year, and over 500 000 for 2009", Oana ROATES, Executive Manager of BRUSSELS Broker, has declared for XPRIMM Newsletters.
Click here to read more!
by mihaela.circu@mxp.ro, 2.10.2008

CEE, RUSSIA&CIS

Law on Co-Financing of Pension Savings in Force From October 1
The law on the co-financing of pension savings, providing public support to people in making the accumulative section of labour pensions, came into force in Russia on October 1, 2008.
Click here to read more!
by RP Newsline, 6.10.2008

Ten companies control 88% of Moldavian insurance market
Moldavian insurance companies from TOP-10 have reported an average growth of over 40% of gross written premiums in S1/2008 compared to H1/2007. Market leaders have accounted over EUR 22.6 million, according to the Actuarial Association of Moldova.
Click here to read more!
by oleg.doronceanu@mxp.ro, 07.10.2008

Bulgaria's general insurance market up 22.7% to EUR 433.5 million
Bulgaria's general insurance market rose by 22.7% in the first seven months to BGN 847.7 million (EUR 433.5 million), said the country's financial regulator, according to Dnevnik.
Click here to read more!
by oleg.doronceanu@mxp.ro, 06.10.2008

Slovenian KD Life to Acquire Company in Ukraine
The Slovenian KD Life, a core unit of KD Group, has been considering opportunities of acquiring a stake in Ukrainian insurers, both life and non-life, reported Interfax-Ukraine agency with reference to Matjaz GANTAR, CEO of KD Group and KD Holding.
Click here to read more!
by RP Newsline, 6.10.2008

EURASIA interested in buying AIG Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan-based insurer EURASIA is interested in purchasing the Kazakh unit of American International Group (AIG), the company announced September 29. Eurasia sent the offer to AIG's London office on September 24.
Click here to read more!
by RP Newsline, 7.10.2008

FINANCIAL NEWS

BCR could post over EUR 600 million in profit, while ERSTE Bank's profit exceeds 50%
The net profit of Romanian Commercial Bank (BCR), the leading bank in terms of assets, and part of the Austrian ERSTE Bank portfolio, could exceed EUR 600 million in 2008, according to analysts, with income from the sale of the BCR's insurance operations driving ERSTE Bank's profit up over 50 percent this year.
BCR reported net consolidated profit in the first half of the year after taxation and minority interest payments of EUR 206.6 million, with results in H2 influenced by the sale to VIENNA Insurance Group of BCR Asigurari and BCR Asigurari de Viata for a total taxable amount of EUR 244 million, to which are added revenue from the sale of its participation in the ASIBAN insurer, of EUR 87.5 million.
"BCR's profit in 2008 could be between EUR 600 and 640 million. Signals indicate an increase in profit of some 30 percent in the second half from operational activity, due to a slowing in the rhythm of lending growth at the banking level," according to a declaration for Business Standard by Adriana MARIN, Director of the Analysis Department of CA IB Securities brokerage company.
An ERSTE Bank press release indicates that the Austrian group is expecting "slight growth" in profit this year, excluding the contribution of income from the sale of the insurance operators. The bank's projection at the beginning of the year indicates growth of 20 percent of net profit, but the financial crisis has affected operational results, and has lead to the devaluation of many of the bank's portfolio assets, according to the same press release. The bank is expecting operational profit to increase by some 15 percent in 2008. ERSTE Bank posted net profit in 2007 of EUR 1.17 billion, up 26 percent year-on-year.
The Austrian group's quotation on the Vienna Stock Exchange dropped 11 percent, following the announcement regarding profit.
by standard.ro, 7.10.2008

BCR: Romania's agriculture could become one of the strongest in EU
Agriculture could become an engine for Romania's economy, if investments are made in this sector, according to a report by Romania's largest lender, Romanian Commercial Bank (BCR).
The country's agriculture could be one of the strongest in the EU, if European funds are absorbed properly, foreign direct investments are attracted, and some government support is provided.
"Agriculture becomes increasingly significant, given that grain prices are constantly rising. Grain prices virtually doubled internationally between 2001 and 2008. As far as Romania is concerned, the 2008 agricultural year will be an outstanding one. We are expecting good production, maybe the best in Romania's history," said BCR's Chief Economist Lucian ANGHEL.
EU funds for agriculture alone amount to EUR 7.7 billion for 2007-2013.
by standard.ro, 7.10.2008

Key interest rate idle at 10.25 percent
Romania's National Bank (BNR) maintained the key interest rate for October at the 10.25 percent level, similar to the monetary policy rate, according to a release published on BNR's website. This is the highest key rate since March 2005, when it was reducer
The key rate was raised on July 31 to 10.25 percent, from the previous 10 percent, due to a hike in inflation up to 9.04 percent in August.
by standard.ro, 7.10.2008

TRANSILVANIA Bank triples profit, seeks market opportunities
Lender TRANSILVANIA Bank (BT), the fourth-largest player on the local market in terms of assets in 2007, posted EUR 109 million in net profit in the first nine months of this year, three times higher than in the same period in 2007.
The result is partly due to the sale of the bank's participation in insurance company ASIBAN.
BT's shareholders are targeting opportunities that could appear on the market. "We are not considering a sale of the bank but, given the current international market, we are considering all opportunities. We have held no discussions with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which has a 14.97 percent share of BT stock, to increase its participation, but have great relations," the President of BT's Board of Directors, Horia CIORCILA, told Business Standard. CIORCILA owns 5 percent of BT.
The international financial crisis has led several players, including ones in the local banking system, to be cautious and focus on bank stability. Thus, several lenders have become more restrictive in granting loans. "In spite of the international situation and with greater caution, we are continuing to lend. We are focusing on issues relating to liquidity, risk management and balance, to ensure the bank's healthy growth," the bank's General Manager, Robert REKKERS, told Business Standard.
by standard.ro, 7.10.2008

EVENTS

5th ICAR - The International CAtastrophic Risks Forum
October 14th, 2008
Bucharest, Romania
Organizer: Media XPRIMM
Media Partner: PRIMM Magazine - Insurance&Pensions
Details: www.icarforum.ro

IV International Congress "World Views for LIFE INSURANCE in Eastern Europe, CIS and Asia"
November 13th-14th, 2008
Sheraton Hotel, Varsovia, Polonia
Organizer: RUSSIAN Polis
Media Partner: Revista PRIMM - Asigurari&Pensii
Details: www.in-sure.ru

Global Pension Funds & Alternative Investments
November 13th-14th 2008
Vienna, Austria
Organizer: UNIGLOBAL Research
Media Partner: PRIMM Magazine - Insurance&Pensions
Details: www.uniglobalresearch.eu

November Business Meetings of Reinsurers
November 27th-28th, 2008
Hotel President, Moscova
Organizer: ARIA - Asociatia Reasiguratorilor din Rusia
Media Partner: Revista PRIMM - Asigurari&Pensii
Details: www.nbm-moscow.ru

World Views for LIFE INSURANCE in Eastern Europe, CIS and Asia

November Business Meetings of Reinsurers

XPRIMM Newsletters

THE EDITORIAL STAFF:

President: Sergiu COSTACHE CEO: Adriana PANCIU
Business Development Director: Alexandru D. CIUNCAN

Editor in Chief: Mihaela CIRCU
Scientific Advisor: Daniela GHETU
International Column Coordinator: Andreea IONETE
Private Pensions Coordinator: Mihai BOBOCEA
Senior Editors: Vlad PANCIU, Oleg DORONCEANU
Editors: Vlad BOLDIJAR, Oana NECULA, Mihai CRACEA, Andreea STATE
Web Responsible: Costi BORODA

General Secretary: Lidia POP

Accounts Manager: Georgiana OPREA
IT Department: Octavian GRIGOR, Dorin PALADE

Edition Responsible: Costi BORODA
e-mail: xprimm@primm.ro

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