XPRIMM News No. 143, October 29th, 2009

Wind of change

One year after the global financial crisis has begun, both insurers and reinsurers are looking ahead to new times. The Central and Eastern European economies, which were leading the development wave last year, are now struggling to keep the pressures under control. Things are no different in the insurance market than at the macroeconomic level.

However, solutions can only come from the CEE markets. Potential is still very high, insurers are largely unaffected by the financial turmoil, while the need for protection is unquestionable – as PRIMM Magazine reports in its CEE Markets Survey, launched in premiere at Baden-Baden 2009.

Besides all the technical details of present times, clearly the younger market economies are still the growth engines of the future. This is also the case of Romania, whose general insurance market will benefit from one of the most important insurance-related projects ever developed in the region – the introduction of mandatory household insurance.

Although discussions started almost 10 years ago, it was in October 2009 that PAID, the company which will manage mandatory policies, was officially formed. 13 privately-owned Romanian direct insurers are shareholders of PAID, which has to insure up to 8 million houses starting, most probably, July 1st, 2010. A task as important as the benefits of this project for individuals, insurers, brokers and international reinsurers.

Discussions are ongoing in Bucharest, not about the general financial crisis – but viable solutions which finally became reality for the insurance market during this economic downturn.

by alexandru.ciuncan@mxp.ro

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Interview with Manfred BRANDMAIER
MUNICH Re
Client Manager South Europe

XPRIMM: The balanced reinsurance pricing in 2009 doesn't necessarily mean the market is stable as rates are being pulled in opposite directions by counter-current forces. Which are these opposite forces that put reinsurance prices under upward vs. downward pressure? How did the crisis affect the reinsurance market, on one hand, and the buyers' attitude, on the other?
M. B.: In a global economy there are the first signs that the negative trend is leveling off now. Many indicators for economic confidence have shown a better picture during the last few months. But the markets are still far from achieving the growth rates recorded before the financial crisis.
In the event of a prolonged and strong recession, the insurance industry will be affected. There will be a claims-related impact on lines of business like directors and officers and professional indemnity. On the revenue side, fields such as engineering could suffer from declining premiums as a consequence of reduced activities in the building sector, for example. You can say there are push and pull pressures on reinsurance pricing. Reinsurers may want to increase rates to ensure that they achieve the necessary margins, but with shrinking demand threatening to chase down primary rates and with buyers of insurance looking to cut costs in the current economic climate, there is pressure to keep prices down. Certainly, from our point of view, we will not follow such negative developments.

XPRIMM: How would you describe current market conditions and what is the biggest issue the reinsurance industry is facing right now?
M. B.: The financial crisis and its impacts on the insurance industry still remain the biggest issues for 2009/2010. Reinsurers' perspectives for profit and growth are clearly affected by the economic situation on the primary insurance side. There are higher costs of capital, capacity reductions and lower interest rates. But both commercial and private customers are generally unwilling to pay more premium for insurance products.
On the other hand, reinsurance has become an important and flexible alternative for refinancing. Then there is the growing demand for security and customized solutions from quality reinsurers. Last but not least, highly sophisticated enterprise risk management is necessary. This means finding the right balance between control and enterprise.

XPRIMM: Given the recently sales of IPC Holdings and PARIS Re, how much consolidation of the reinsurance market is to come and what drives this trend upward?
M. B.: I cannot comment on the plans of other market players but only for MUNICH Re. Acquisitions are in general part of MUNICH Re's strategy, but only if two prerequisites are met. One is they must fit into the strategy and second, the price must be attractive. With MUNICH Re's highly diversified portfolio from all regions and all lines of business the probability of an overlap with the portfolio of another reinsurance company would be high. So, the acquisition of a big composite reinsurance company is not very likely.

XPRIMM: What are your expectations regarding the reinsurance demand in Romania for this year and for which lines of business do you think this demand would increase?
M. B.: The largest reinsurance demand will certainly emerge from the new Insurance Pool against Natural Disasters, which is just about to be established and which shall become operative with the beginning of next year. In addition, it is expected that this shall also trigger more insurance demand by e.g. owners of flats as their insurance awareness will increase. From our point of view, very challenging will be the future reinsurance of Motor Own Damage and, to a certain extent, Motor Third Party Liability business. Claims experience is very unsatisfactory and signs for improvement so far are not sufficiently noticeable. Hence reinsurance companies will need to analyse very carefully the extent of engagement they will be ready to offer next year.

by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro

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Manfred BRANDMAIER MUNICH Re,
Client Manager South Europe

XPRIMM sets up a new tradition in Baden-Baden!
PRIMM - Insurance & Pensions Magazine launched on October 25 “CEE Markets Survey 2009”, report on the insurance markets in Central and Eastern Europe, at the most important European event for the reinsurance industry, held this week in Baden-Baden, Germany.
Click here to read more!
by vlad.panciu@mxp.ro, 26.10.2009

Baden-Baden hosted the first edition of XPRIMM Symposium
Over 160 leaders and experts in insurance, reinsurance and related areas, that are participating this year at the Meetings in Baden-Baden, took part in the XPRIMM Symposium, organized by Media XPRIMM in premiere, on October 25, current year.
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by oana.radu@mxp.ro, 26.10.2009

EXCLUSIVE: Editorial premiere by XPRIMM, launched at Baden-Baden
Media XPRIMM launched an editorial premiere at Baden-Baden: "CEE Markets Survey". The material is a complex report on the evolution of insurance markets in the 15 countries in Central and Eastern Europe and exclusively shows the latest data and trends relating to insurance markets in the region. Also, “CEE Markets Survey” is the only summary document with updated data at the first half of this year - underwritings/paid claims/national hierarchyes on market segments and trends - and is the first regional assessment on how the financial crisis was reflected upon the economy and the insurance market of each CEE country.
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by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro, 22.10.2009

SCOR wants more - some reinsurers are demanding higher prices
Contrary to the view among brokers ans some reinsurers that renewal rates will be stable or soften, SCOR intends to push for "resonable" premium increases from its clients, according to SCOR's Victor PEIGNET.
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by media@mxp.ro, 29.10.2009

RMS develops new cat models
US-based modelling firm touts new model features and a family of cat bond indices.
RISK MANAGEMENT SOLUTION Inc., the Newark, California-based modelling firm, has returned to Baden-Baden this year to present its new line of parametric indices, an updated US earthquake model, and an upcoming flood and earthquake model for Central and Eastern Europe.
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by media@mxp.ro, 29.10.2009

PERILS improves availability of natural cat data
The insurance industry initiative believes the availability of improved market data will lead to additional European windstorm capacity.
PERILS AG, an insurance industry initiative aimed at improving the availability of catastrophe insurance market data, will launch a suite of products at the start of 2010 that it believes will ultimately lead to additional capacity in the European windstorm market.
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by media@mxp.ro, 29.10.2009

Economic recovery will be gradual
After the global recovery picks up steam, there are those in the insurance and reinsurance industry who fear that rising inflation could erode company returns and capital.
But Sean MOONEY, Guy CARPENTER's New York Based chief economist, believes that the US Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and elsewhere will be able to effectively "mop up" the excess liquidity before inflation becomes a real problem.
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by media@mxp.ro, 29.10.2009

Demand for life reinsurance rises
While European life insurance companies are expected to buy more reinsurance at the January 1 renewals, the extra capacity being offered by reinsurers will not be enough to meet the market demand, according to an A.M. BEST analyst attending renewals in Baden-Baden.
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by media@mxp.ro, 29.10.2009

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"CEE Markets Survey 2009", available for download!
"CEE Markets Survey 2009", the most comprehensive report on the evolution of insurance markets in the region, launched by PRIMM - Insurance & Pensions Magazine at XPRIMM Symposium, event organized on October 25 this year, at Baden-Baden, is available for download, on insurance.1asig.ro, the most visited insurance web-portal in Romania.
Click here to read more!
by oana.radu@mxp.ro, 26.10.2009

EXCLUSIVE: Constantin TOMA, reconfirmed as President of OMNIASIG
Constantin TOMA was reconfirmed on 21st of October as the President of OMNIASIG. Meanwhile, VIENNA Insurance Group has renewed the mandate of the entire Directorate of OMNIASIG. The information was confirmed for the XPRIMM Newsletters by Alexander JEDLICKA, Corporate Communications CEE at VIG. The duration of the new mandate of the President of OMNIASIG is 4 years.
Also, Constantin TOMA will continue to exercise the function of Chairman of PAID.
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by octavian.constantin@mxp.ro, 22.10.2009

ASTRA leads the market of voluntary household insurance
The company ASTRA Asigurari is the leader of the voluntary household insurance market, responsible for 58.4% of the policies in force as of June 30 current year on this segment, the correspondent volume of underwritings amounting to over RON 96.4 million. ASTRA has insured, thus, almost 15% of the total number of houses in Romania, with an average premium of RON 90, the number of contracts in force being of 1.12 million.
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by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro, 19.10.2009

MUNICH Re: The largest reinsurance demand in Romania will emerge from PAID
Negotiations for the renewal of reinsurance contracts, which are beginning this week in Baden-Baden, must not be neglected, given the increases of the reinsurance premiums for primary insurers in Eastern Europe, including Romania.
Thus, both the effects of financial crisis on certain classes of insurance, such as professional liability, as well as the motor claims rising will definitely pull up reinsurance rates on these lines of business.
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by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro, 22.10.2009

The insurance and pensions divisions of ING will be sold by 2013
The Dutch financial group ING announced yesterday that it would completely separate banking operations from the insurance ones, as part of the restructuring program "Back to Basics". The decision comes following the completion of the reorganization plan announced early this year, recently agreed with the European Commission. ING is going to divest, in time, all insurance and investment management operations, through IPOs and sales or a combination between these two.
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by mihaela.circu@mxp.ro, 27.10.2009

AXA wants to enter the local market by 2012
French insurer AXA, the largest European player in the market, expressed its intention to enter Romania by 2012, after it has recorded significant growths of market share in other countries in the region, such as Ukraine and Poland, according to Cyrille de MONTGOLFIER, CEO of the AXA CEE Division.
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by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro, 16.10.2009

Three Romanian insurers, in Top 20 general insurance in Central and Eastern Europe
After the first six months of this year, the companies ALLIANZ-TIRIAC, OMNIASIG and ASTRA are placed among the first 20 companies (by gross written premiums volume criterion) in the region. They occupy the places 13, 15 and 20, according to “CEE Markets Survey”, a complex report of analysis made by PRIMM Insurance & Pensions Magazine regarding the insurance markets of the countries belonging to the space of Central and Eastern Europe.
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by daniela.ghetu@mxp.ro, vlad.boldijar@mxp.ro, 22.10.2009

DELTA Asigurari is in liquidation and is searching an insurer for the transfer of the portfolio
DELTA Asigurari, Romanian insurance company specialized on the life segment, is in voluntary liquidation process, all the necessary documents being submitted last month to the Insurance Supervisory Commission. "The decision was taken by shareholders, PETROMSERVICE and MKB Romexterra Bank, and now they negotiate the sale of portfolio of the company to other insurers on the market”, said for XPRIMM Newsletters Maria PASA, General Manager of DELTA Asigurari.
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by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro, 20.10.2009

Mandatory insurance - also for legal persons
The mandatory insurance program should also be extended to companies, according to an amendment proposal of the mandatory household insurance law, launched in ICAR – the International CAtastrophic Risk Forum 2009, by Radu MANOLIU, Deputy General Manager, CREDIT Europe Asigurari. The proposal starts from the assumption of a catastrophic event, an earthquake of large magnitude, for example, a case in which the activity of a large number of legal entities would cease, leading to an indefinite loss of revenues.
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by oana.radu@mxp.ro, 19.10.2009

GROUPAMA Asigurari reduces its share capital
The shareholders of GROUPAMA Asigurari decided to reduce the share capital by RON 872.9 million, as a consequence of the reduction in net assets of the company, to less than 50% of the value of the underwrote capital.
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by mihaela.circu@mxp.ro, 26.10.2009

SAFE INVEST, EPM Romania and KUNDEN Broker own 58% of the life segment
In the first half of 2009, the life insurance class generated 58% (equivalent to EUR 14.4 million) of total business of insurance brokers, a negative nominal growth of -3.25, compared to H1 2008.
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by vlad.boldijar@mxp.ro, 16.10.2009

RFIB appoints Simon FOREMAN as Divisional Director in RFIB Marine
Simon FOREMAN was appointed as Divisional Director in RFIB Marine within RFIB Group, the international LLOYD’s insurance and reinsurance broker. FOREMAN takes up his new position on 23 October 2009, RFIB announced today.
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by andreea.ionete@mxp.ro, 22.10.2009

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September registers mortgage growth
Mortgages increased in September by 1.17 percent month-on-month, influenced slightly by the government's First Home program, and analysts admit that the rhythm of growth slowed compared to previous years.
The evolution of mortgages in the ninth month was sustained by foreign currency loans for homes, which advanced 1.31 percent compared to August, to RON 20.9 billion (EUR 4.8 billion), while mortgages in lei dropped 0.46 percent, to RON 1.7 billion (EUR 400 million).
by standard.ro, 29.10.2009

DEUTSCHE Bank will enter the Romanian market in 2010, on corporate segment
DEUTSCHE Bank, the largest German crediting institution, will enter the Romanian market next year, by opening a branch to serve corporate clients, without planning any new acquisitions.
According to MEDIAFAX, the director for Romania of the company, Juergen FITSCHEN, announced that he anticipates difficulties in the first half of the next year connected with the losses generated by the bad loans in the global banking industry. Actually, a month ago, Juergen FITSCHEN declared in an interview to the publication BOERSEN-ZEITUNG that he analyzes the possibility of some acquisitions in Central and East Europe, immediately after the countries from this region are back on an upward trend.
However, Juergen FITSCHEN stressed that the bank does not need to make acquisitions in order to increase its presence on the markets from the region. The real estate division of the German group DEUTSCHE Bank has recently signed the contract for the takeover of the biggest office building from Bucharest, further to a transaction estimated at over EUR 100 million. This is the first major transaction from the capital city this year.
by nineoclock.ro, 26.10.2009

US Ambassador: IT&C will pull Romania out of the crisis
"The IT&C sector will pull Romania out of the crisis because it has great potential, as a matter of fact it was the economy's engine in the last two decades", Mark GITTENSTEIN, the US Ambassador told at the "IT&C and the future of the information society" Global Forum.
"I consider that Romania is the proper place for hosting this global forum because it has a significant potential in the IT&C domain that was a strong economic engine in the last 20 years it. Likewise, I believe that the IT&C sector will pull Romania out of the crisis", GITTENSTEIN stated.
According to the American diplomat, over 50,000 people work in the IT&C sector in Romania, the wages are above the economy's average and the sector's turnover surpassed EUR 6.5 billion.
"The IT&C sector in Romania is contributing with 8 percent of the GDP and ranks third in the world when it comes to externalizing services, also being one of the world leaders in certification and development in this domain", the US Ambassador to Romania added.
The American diplomat underlined that Romania needs investments in the IT&C infrastructure especially in the rural sector that is not covered.
by nineoclock.ro, 22.10.2009

Fragile recovery for Romania in 2010 - 1%
Romania's economy is forecast to shrink by 8 percent in 2009 after a strong expansion of 7.1 percent in 2008. Growth of 1 percent is expected in 2010, the EBRD Transition Report 2009, which will be published in full next month, points out, a press release informs.
"After years of robust growth, Romania is currently experiencing a significant economic slowdown, owing to declining exports, falling construction activities and slowing credit growth. However, International Financial Institutions have stepped in to help mitigate the impact of the crisis and Romania's medium-term outlook remains favorable with good potential for the resumption of growth once global conditions improve", said EBRD Lead Economist, Peter SANFEY.
The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are expected to contract by an average of 6.3 percent in 2009 following steep output declines in the first half of the year. Signs of positive growth in the third quarter of 2009 suggest that the recession is now bottoming out in many countries of the EBRD region.
However, any upturn in 2010 is likely to be fragile and patchy.
The report also points out there are likely to be significant cross-country differences in output growth in 2010, masked by an average growth rate for the region of about 2.5 percent.
by nineoclock.ro, 16.10.2009

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