RUSSIA: Expert RA forecasts the insurance market growth in 2022 by 7-9%

17 January 2022 — Marina MAGNAVAL
The rating agency Expert RA has published a preliminary forecast for the insurance market development in 2022, according to which the market will grow by 7-9% y-o-y, and total GWP approach RUB 2 trillion (~EUR 23 billion*), ASN reports with reference to the rating agency.

It is noted that development of the insurance market will follow the Bank of Russia key rate, and its growth will put pressure on all segments of the insurance market. At the same time, the agency doesn't expect a reduction in any segment, but only some correction of dynamics after rapid recovery in 2021.

In 2021 non-life GWP will reach RUB 1.28 trillion (+15-16%), life insurance - RUB 520 billion (+21%), and the market will cross the mark of RUB 1.8 trillion overall (+17-18%). According to Expert RA's forecast, in 2022 the market will reach RUB 1.95 trillion having much more moderate growth.

The agency expects that in 2022 growth rates of most of the largest types of insurance will decrease, remaining in the positive area. Growth of lending rates, introduction of additional macroprudential restrictions on consumer loans, as well as changes in preferential mortgage programs will have a cooling effect on the dynamics of insurance related to lending. GWP in insurance against accidents and illnesses will grow by 9-11%, in insurance of property of individuals - by 3-5%. Increased car prices, prices of spare parts and cost of repairs will have an upward impact on Motor Hull dynamics as a result of an increase in the average cost of a policy. At the same time, continuing shortage of new cars will, on the contrary, hold back growth of this segment due to its impact on dynamics of the number of contracts. Thus, the growth rate in Motor Hull will slow down to 5-7%, according to the forecast.

Voluntary health insurance still has significant potential for recovery in terms of the number of contracts concluded, the segment has not yet returned to the level of 2019, which will support its dynamics in 2022. The segment's growth rate is expected to be at 8-10%. In insurance of property of legal entities, a moderate increase of 3-5% will be observed, the agency notes.

Life insurance will continue to be the market driver. An increase in bank rates will slow down the dynamics of credit life insurance, as well as increase attractiveness of deposits, thereby reducing customers' interest in accumulative and investment life insurance. Active growth of life insurance of borrowers in 2022, following retail lending, will slow down to 15%, the segment will amount to RUB 155 billion. Accumulative life insurance and investment life insurance will grow at a moderate pace at 15% and 10%, respectively. Expert RA forecasts growth of the life insurance market in 2022 at about 13%, up to RUB 590 billion.

* 1 EUR = 86.8894 RUB (15.01.2022)



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