RUSSIA: life insurance might decrease by 11-12% in 2019

6 January 2020 —
By 2021, the Russian insurance market won't be able to reach the goal set by the All-Russian Insurance Association (ARIA) of RUB 2 trillion (~EUR 28.8 billion*), part of its development strategy, as the national rating agencies Expert RA and NCR (National Credit Ratings) consider.

The rating agencies believe that by the end of 2019 and in 2020 the market won't grow because the potential of its main driver (life insurance) has been exhausted and is already showing negative dynamics.

According to NCR forecasts, life insurance will keep decreasing until the end of 2020. By the end of 2019, the volume of this market will be no more than RUB 400 billion (~EUR 5.77 billion*), while in 2020 the volume will sit about RUB 380 billion. In 2019-2020 GWP of the entire market will remain at the level of RUB 1.5 trillion (~EUR 21.63 billion*).

Expert RA believes that the new sales standards, introduced to prevent misselling, negatively impacted the dynamics of life insurance. According to the agency's expectations, by the end of 2019 life GWP will decrease by 11-12% y-o-y.

MTPL, another key market segment, will decrease by 6.8% in 2019, to RUB 210.7 billion (~EUR 3 billion*), according to the analysts of the SOGLASIE insurance company (in 3Q2019 the insurer ranked 11th among 175 companies on the market and ranks 9th on the MTPL market). As the insurer noted, MTPL declining trend was influenced by such factors as expansion of the tariff corridor, specification of drivers' age and driving experience, and it is possible that continued liberalization in 2020 will lead to further reduction of MTPL policy cost and therefore this market volume will not grow. In 2020, according to SOGLASIE forecasts, this market will remain at the level of RUB 211.5 billion.

SOGLASIE (ranking 5th on the Motor Hull market) estimates that Motor Hull GWP in 2019 may reach RUB 167.7 billion (~EUR 2.42 billion*), while in 2020 the line will slightly increase to RUB 172.6 billion (+2.9% in local currency). According to the company's analysts, in 2019, this market stagnated amid falling sales of new vehicles and growing sales of used ones.

*EUR 1 = RUB 69.3406 (as of 31.12.2019)