A strengthening El Niño could significantly alter the global catastrophe risk landscape in the coming months, although its effects will vary considerably across regions and perils, according to a new SCOR Expert Views report, El Niño 2026: Implications for Global Catastrophe Risk and Insured Losses.

SCOR expects El Niño conditions to strengthen during the second half of 2026 and persist into early 2027, with around a 90% probability of a strong or very strong event during the peak Atlantic hurricane season. Historically, El Niño has tended to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and U.S. landfalls, but SCOR emphasizes that this does not remove the risk of a major insured loss from a single severe event.

The analysis goes beyond Atlantic hurricanes, examining the relationship between ENSO phases and insured losses from Western North Pacific typhoons, floods, severe convective storms and wildfires. Among its findings, SCOR estimates that normalized U.S. hurricane losses during El Niño years have historically been around 58% lower than during La Niña years, while Asia-Pacific typhoon losses have averaged about 30% above their long-term mean during El Niño conditions.

For Europe, the conclusions are less clear. SCOR notes that ENSO may influence European windstorms through changes in atmospheric circulation and the North Atlantic storm track but considers this relationship relatively weak and its impact on windstorm frequency and insured losses uncertain.

The report also looks beyond the current cycle: strong El Niño events have frequently been followed by La Niña conditions, potentially creating a more favorable environment for Atlantic hurricanes in subsequent seasons. For insurers and reinsurers, the study offers an interesting reminder that ENSO can change both the expected level and the volatility of catastrophe losses, while remaining only one of several factors shaping individual loss years.

Read the full SCOR Expert Views report for the detailed analysis, historical comparisons and implications for catastrophe risk across different regions and perils.