As the agency explained, introduction of standards for sales of life investment products may encourage clients to invest in other financial instruments and the life GWP at the end of 2019 may drop to the 2017 level. This means reduction of life premiums by 20-25%, to RUB 350 billion. In case if new standards do not significantly affect the investment life insurance, life growth rates will be about 28% and GWP may reach RUB 575 billion.
In the absence of growth drivers for non-life market, its stagnation will continue in 2019. Non-life GWP growth will be about 3-5%, the market volume may exceed RUB 1 trillion. It is expected that voluntary medical insurance will maintain a positive growth rate (6-7%) due to annual inflation of medical services cost and popularization of insurance products against critical diseases. Growth rates of insurance against accidents and illnesses will drop to 10-11% due to growing bank rates and slow development of the consumer lending market. Insurance of property of individuals will grow at a moderate pace (9-10%) thanks to active promotion of packaged insurance products via banks. Insurance of property of legal entities will demonstrate stable growth rates at 6-7%, changes of MTPL tariffs will not make a significant impact on the segment's dynamics, and its GWP will not increase by more than 1-2%. Motor Hull will be under pressure from growing loan rates and expected slowdown in new car sales, thus, given the segment's saturation with truncated insurance products and policies with a franchise, it will be stagnating.
A detailed forecast of the agency (in Russian) may be found here.
*for approximate calculation EUR 1 = RUB 76.9498 (16.01.2019)
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