The findings point to a broader shift in systemic risk as threats increasingly interact across financial, digital, natural-hazard and socio-economic systems. The severity of the next systemic crisis may depend less on the size of the initial shock than on where it hits and how widely its effects spread. Growing dependence on common suppliers, technology platforms and critical infrastructure means disruption in one area can increasingly cascade into seemingly unrelated parts of the economy.
AI risk reporting has broadened beyond the technology sector, with the share of companies reporting AI and new-technology risks increasing by around 30% between 2019 and 2026 to encompass industries including retail, airlines, pharmaceuticals and food. If companies and financial institutions increasingly rely on common technologies and similar AI models, stress could trigger faster and more synchronised reactions.
Climate risk mentions by companies increased by around 31% since 2019. More than a quarter of US data centres are in areas with at least three large-hail days a year, and more than 40% are in zones of significant tornado risk. In Taiwan, 88% of semiconductor plants are in areas of extreme seismic risk. When natural hazards hit concentrated infrastructure that large parts of the economy depend on and that cannot easily be replaced, a local shock can spread across the wider economy. Concentration risk is not only geographic. Three providers controlled 70% of global cloud infrastructure in 2024, while three companies process 97% of global credit card transactions.
Risk compensation is low by historical standards for some financial assets, while governments have less room to use traditional policy tools to contain future shocks. This increases the importance of building resilience before crises occur.
"Interconnected risks leave less room for error, while governments in many advanced economies have less room to respond. High debt and constrained policy buffers mean resilience cannot start when a crisis hits – it has to be built beforehand, by reducing critical dependencies, strengthening buffers and preserving the capacity to transfer risk", said Jérôme Haegeli, Group Chief Economist and Head of Swiss Re Institute.
"A company may look diversified until you discover that its suppliers, technology providers and customers depend on the same infrastructure. One disruption can therefore affect more parts of a business than expected. Understanding those dependencies may help companies reduce concentrations, strengthen resilience and decide which risks they can absorb and which they need to transfer", commented Ivan Gonzalez, Chief Executive Officer of Corporate Solutions at Swiss Re.
Full study can be found here.
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