Based on responses from 81 senior executives - including CEOs and deputy CEOs - the December 2025 survey reflects a market that remains confident in its growth potential, but increasingly aware of profitability risks.
Real growth expected
A clear majority of respondents - 64% - expect real premium growth in 2026, while nearly half anticipate real increases in net profit. This positive outlook signals continued trust in the sector’s underlying fundamentals.
However, executives remain divided on the macroeconomic environment. While 40% see no significant impact from broader economic conditions, others highlight persistent challenges.
Interest rates and inflation dominate concerns
The most pressing threat to profitability is the trajectory of interest rates, cited by 41% of respondents as the key risk factor. Inflation follows at 31%, with exchange rate volatility also viewed as a concern.
Sectoral dynamics vary. In non-life insurance, interest rates directly influence pricing and technical margins. In life and pension segments, inflation is seen as more damaging, affecting savings values and long-term returns.
Non-Life leads growth expectations
The survey reveals a clear divergence between business lines. Non-life insurers are the most optimistic, with 67% expecting real premium growth, supported by portfolio expansion and market share strategies.
By contrast, life and pension companies adopt a more cautious stance, with 54% expecting real growth, largely in line with inflation. Ongoing stagnation in bank lending activity is cited as a limiting factor for this segment.
Technical profitability takes center stage
One of the survey’s strongest messages is the renewed emphasis on underwriting discipline. Among executives expecting real profit growth, 70% believe that gains will primarily stem from technical profitability, while only 30% attribute it mainly to financial income. This signals a shift toward core insurance fundamentals, amid expectations that financial returns alone will not be sufficient to sustain profitability.
Strategic priorities: pricing, investment and efficiency
Looking ahead, insurers identify three key factors shaping financial results in 2026: investment performance, pricing policies and regulatory changes. Companies are planning selective underwriting, tighter pricing discipline and enhanced cost optimization.
Automation and digitalization are also high on the agenda, particularly within life and pension companies, as firms seek to protect margins through operational efficiency.
Overall, Turkish insurers approach 2026 with cautious confidence. Real growth appears achievable, but success will depend on disciplined underwriting, regulatory adaptation and operational efficiency.
In an environment defined by regulation, interest rates and intense competition, 2026 is shaping up to be less about rapid expansion and more about sustainable, technically driven profitability.
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